Modeling Soil Organic Carbon Change across Australian Wheat Growing Areas, 1960–2010

Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Australian wheat-growing areas were simulated from 1960 to 2010 using Agro-C, a calibrated and validated biogeophysical model. Previously published data from field measurements were used to parameterize the Agro-C model. Model simulations show a decreasing trend in SOC over the last 50 years, mainly attributable to relatively low organic carbon (C) inputs. The rate of decrease in SOC tended to slow in the last two decades due primarily to an increase in wheat yields, which resulted in an increase in C input. Overall, we estimate that Australian wheat-growing areas, covering an area of 15.09 million hectares (Mha), lost 156 (86-222, 95% confidence interval) Tg C in the topsoil (to 30 cm depth) from 1960 to 2010. Approximately 80% of the SOC loss occurred in the period between the 1960s and the 1980s. Spatially, the SOC loss in areas with relatively high temperature and low precipitation, such as Queensland, the northern part of New South Wales and Western Australia, was more significant than that in other areas. We suggest that the loss of SOC could be halted, or even reversed, with an additional input of organic C into the soil at a minimum rate of 0.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1).